Two reports on a close race

Automatic recount states. Ohio, Florida and others set a margin. If the race falls inside it, the recount happens without anyone asking. Ohio's line is half of one percent of the total vote in that contest.

Requested recount states. Many states let the trailing candidate ask for a recount, often at their own cost, with a refund if the outcome changes or the margin was very small. Ohio allows a requested recount when the race is outside the automatic line.

No recount states. Mississippi has neither automatic nor candidate-requested recounts. A disputed result goes to court.

Recounts rarely change outcomes. FairVote studied every statewide general election from 2000 to 2023: 6,929 elections, 36 recounts, and only 3 reversals. All three started with a margin under 0.06%, and the average recount moved the margin by about 0.03% (FairVote). Modern paper ballots counted by scanner leave little room for a recount to find votes.

The canvass matters more than the recount. In the Hamilton County race, the election-night gap was about 1.2%. Counting more than 10,000 provisional ballots cut it to 23 votes, and a court case over which provisionals should count decided it. Provisionals did that work, not the recount.

Outstanding ballots do not automatically break one way. In Ohio's 12th District special election in 2018, which included Delaware County, about 8,400 ballots were outstanding, and the leader's margin grew once they were counted (WVXU).

Ties are real. After November 2021, 18 local Ohio races tied and were settled by coin flip or drawing (Ohio SOS). Delaware County once settled a central committee tie by drawing a horseshoe from a bag (WKBN).

One standard for every ballot. The Hamilton County case turned on a board counting some provisional ballots and not others that were in the same situation. A federal judge ruled that unequal treatment violated equal protection (CityBeat). Fair counting means the same rule for every ballot.

Automatic recount. Ohio requires one when the margin is half a percent of total votes or less. The threshold is recalculated after the canvass, so it will shift slightly from today's 571.

Who counts. Board staff in bipartisan teams. No candidate or volunteer handles ballots.

Observers. Candidates may attend and designate observers. Observers watch quietly, take notes, and raise concerns only with the board's designated contact.

Hamilton County, 2010 (the closest parallel). A countywide race of about 230,000 votes. Counting about 10,500 provisionals cut a 2,847-vote election-night lead to 23 (Ohio Appeals blog). The board had counted some wrong-precinct provisionals but not others, and a federal judge ruled that unequal treatment violated equal protection (CityBeat). After an appeal, about 286 more ballots were counted and Hunter was declared the winner by 71 in April 2012, 17 months after the election. An automatic recount followed, and her final margin was 74, official in May 2012. The lesson for us: the board must apply one standard to every provisional, and observers are how we know whether it did.

Ohio's 12th District special, 2018 (Delaware County was in it). Balderson led by about 1,750 on election night, and a Franklin County audit cut that to 1,564. About 8,400 ballots were outstanding, including 3,435 provisionals. An OSU political scientist estimated O'Connor needed about 60% of them and called it a long shot (WVXU). The lead actually grew to 1,680, missing the recount threshold by 520 (WVXU). Outstanding ballots do not automatically break our way.

Ties happen every year in Ohio. After November 2021, 18 local races tied and were settled by coin flip or drawing (Ohio SOS). In Perry County, a township trustee race led by one vote on election night tied after provisionals and went to a coin toss (Buckeye Lake Beacon). Delaware County once settled a central committee tie by drawing a horseshoe from a bag (WKBN).